Many regional and international news agencies, citing data from a range of international economic research organizations and agencies, have made optimistic assessments and forecasts about Vietnam’s economy in the context of the COVID-19 epidemic. In many countries it is still complicated.
On November 19, the website Globaldata.com (UK) affirmed that Vietnam is one of the few countries that can control the epidemic to a certain degree, with the number of COVID-19 cases and low mortality. The World Bank (WB) forecasts that Vietnam’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) will grow 2.8% in 2020 and 6.8% in 2021.
Page bbc.co.uk (UK) assessed that Vietnam has reduced the economic damage caused by COVID-19 and is the only country in Southeast Asia that is on the rise in 2020.
According to the website above, although compared to many richer countries, Vietnam still lacks medical infrastructure, but Vietnam is praised by most countries for its rapid, controlled public health measures. number of COVID-19 infections. Vietnam has produced early COVID-19 rapid test kits, combined with a strategy for traceability and source control to limit the number of cases. In 2020, Vietnam will see a slowdown in growth and a particularly hard hit in the tourism sector. Even so, Vietnam has avoided the worst economic effects of the pandemic.
The website bbc.co.uk also quoted Mr. Michael Kokalari – chief economist of Vinacapital, pointed out a number of factors to help Vietnam mitigate the impact of COVID-19. One of the most surprising factors is the dramatic increase in the number of people working from home globally. Accordingly, people equip their own laptops and office furniture so they can spend more time working from home, and a lot of those products are made in Vietnam. In the first three quarters of 2020, Vietnam’s exports to the US increased by 23% over the same period in 2019, of which electronics exports increased by 26%.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecasts that Vietnam’s economy will grow 2.4% this year thanks to “determination to prevent the economic recession and the impact of the epidemic on public health” and will recover. strong by 2021, with growth expected to reach 6.5% “as domestic and foreign economic activity gradually returns to normal”.
Meanwhile, malaymail.com (Malaysia) quoted Steve Cochrane, chief economist involved in drafting the 2021 Asia-Pacific Economic Outlook (APAC) Report of Moody’s Analytics, for As of September 2020, Vietnam and some APAC economies such as Singapore, Taiwan (China), Malaysia and New Zealand all reported higher exports than a year ago. Together with mainland China and Hong Kong (China), Vietnam is forecast to be one of the fastest growing APAC economies in 2021.
Page proactiveinvestors.co.uk (UK) quoted the Vietnam Holding Fund, a closed-end fund based on the value and long-term investment school in Vietnam, predicted that this Southeast Asian economy will return to a rate of more than 6%. by 2021 due to “many growth drivers”.
Proactiveinvestors.co.uk said that the resilience between the pandemic “helped to enhance Vietnam’s position as a major trading partner” and that Vietnam’s trade relations with other countries were “continued. more motivation “.
Vietnam’s position as a trading partner is also likely to be strengthened by the signing of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP). As Vietnam Holding Fund Director Craig Martin, with an open economy like Vietnam, the signing of trade agreements, including RCEP can help highlight Vietnam’s growth story further.
Written by Đất Xanh Quang Hải
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